Bumps Ahead For Top Teams

Sydney Morning Herald

Friday July 31, 1998

RICHARD HINDS

With five rounds of home and away games left, the top of the ladder has taken on the shape of a Formula One starting grid.

The Bulldogs and St Kilda occupy the front row with 12 wins, North Melbourne and Sydney are just behind them on 11, and Richmond and West Coast are nudging their exhaust pipes on 10.

But, as anyone who has ever had Michael Schumacher in their rear vision mirror can tell you, those postions can change pretty quickly once the flag drops. Accordingly, a couple of teams may even struggle to get through this weekend's first bend.

St Kilda and the Bulldogs are protecting the plum top two spots, which carry with them home-ground advantage throughout the finals (so long as they keep winning those finals). Yet losses last week to Essendon and Carlton, respectively, have suddenly made that task more difficult.

St Kilda's trip to Adelaide on Saturday night, particularly, will be exacting. The Saints had the ball in their attacking 50m zone 20 more times than Essendon last week but, with Peter Everitt held and Stewart Loewe suspended, could not capitalise. Loewe has another two weeks to serve, and there will be even more pressure on Everitt this time. Inevitably, the result, like that of last year's grand final, could depend on St Kilda's ability to control freakish Crows forward Darren Jarman.

The Bulldogs face a much softer assignment. Collingwood failed to cover the loss of star Nathan Buckley against West Coast last week and, against a Bulldogs team bent on demonstrating last week's pitiful display against Carlton was an aberration, should struggle again.

Best placed to move on level terms with the top two should either of the leaders slip is North Melbourne, who play an experimental match against Port Adelaide in Canberra. Wayne Carey, a Wagga boy, should get plenty of support close to home, although on his recent brilliant form he hardly needs it.

Sydney's task is not so easy. Their percentage is the worst of the leading bunch and a trip to rustic Geelong, even when the local team is injury-struck and struggling, is seldom easy. As much as the Swans would hate to hear it, the contribution of Tony Lockett in the absence of Cats full-back Ben Graham and the next best option, Tim McGrath, should prove conclusive.

Richmond, while hoping for Sydney and North to stumble, might not find it so easy keeping their own footing at Waverley. On paper, a trip to Waverley to play hapless Hawthorn might seem like a regulation victory, but the Tigers have lost seven of eight "away" games this season and the Hawks are due.

But West Coast can bank their four points against Fremantle, their intrastate fall guys. So far, the Perth rivalry stands at 7-0. Make that 8-0 on Sunday afternoon.

Which leaves the three teams at equal seventh on points, all with the dual task of cementing a finals place and trying to move at least into the top six.

Adelaide must win at home against St Kilda or risk slipping out of contention, Essendon face a tougher than expected battle against resurgent Carlton to keep their hooks in the eight, while, should the Bombers lose, Melbourne will take their place by beating Brisbane at home.